The Situation
The 4pm preliminary CLI report shows Miami's low as 63F at 7:53 AM. However, METAR hourly observations show:
Time | METAR Temp |
|---|---|
05:53 | 68F |
06:53 | 68F |
07:53 | 72F |
The CLI claims 63F at the exact time METAR shows 72F - a 9-degree discrepancy suggesting a possible data error.
The Market
Bracket | Price | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
63-64 | 64-65c | Final CLI keeps 63F |
67-68 | 32-33c | Final CLI corrects to ~68F |
Both sides agree Kalshi settles on CLI. The question is whether the early morning final CLI will match or correct the preliminary 4pm report.
The Precedent
Philadelphia Jan 9 settled at the CLI-reported temperature which was significantly different than observed data. Past practice suggests corrections are rare - NWS typically stands by their reports.
Bottom Line
The 63-64 bracket at 65c is the safer play if you believe the final CLI will match the preliminary. The 67-68 bracket at 33c is a bet on NWS issuing a correction overnight.
Given that corrections are uncommon even when METAR data conflicts, 63-64 appears underpriced at 65c for a potential 35c (54%) return.
Sources:
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